alt Hacker NewsYou can cherry pick the bad ones if the point you want to make is that it's risky. Nobody is saying Anthropic is definitely going to 0, just that there is a risk.
You can cherry pick the bad ones if the point you want to make is that it's risky. Nobody is saying Anthropic is definitely going to 0, just that there is a risk.
But from an economics perspective OAI/Antropic are more similar to Amazon than to Pets.com. Pets.com always had a heavily negative COGS - they were in the business of selling $20 bills for $15. On the flip side, Anthropic appears to be positive on COGS, and OAI could get positive by cutting limits on free and $20 plans. OAI/Anthropic are negative on the books mostly because of massive R&D expenses. This compares well to Amazon circa 1999, which was positive on COGS but negative overall due to massive buildout R&D costs.
Note that I'm not saying OAI/Anthropic are destined for success - because the rate of change combined with competition with cheap Chinese models is pretty novel in the business case history. But I am saying that pessimistic dot-com-boom comparisons don't seem to be all that deep.