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georgemcbay • yesterday at 7:21 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

> And who will be the Amazon and grow 2500x over the next 30 years?

Almost certainly nobody if you're tracking post-IPO growth.

And not because there won't be survivors/winners when the next crash comes (there probably will be) but because of the market changes (in the wake of legislation like the JOBS act) that result in these companies having their significant growth periods prior to IPO instead of after it.

IPOs used to be a launch pad to growth, now they are just a way for private investors to finally cash out when the company is already close to peak valuation.