alt Hacker NewsIf AGI is created, then it will be used by someone else to create a cheaper AGI, making the finances of the person who borrowed trillions to create it in question.
An extremely hypothetical experiment but what if this is some sort of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) and in our timeline, we have accepted it with AI.
Deepseek can do MAD on Anthropic and release open weights model (which means that they might not earn the most or basically burn millions/billions to then give us all essentially the same thing and we would all be on equal footing, oh they also released their inference engine right now.)
This might explain why the stock market got into an bubble and is fearing itself right now.
Mutually Assured Commoditization. (Credit where it's due I pasted my comment to Chatgpt and it gave me this term ironically and it seems to fit well to the comment that I am writing, I might write a blog about it someday.)
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It would explain why Anthropic are anti open-weight too. They need the moat
MAD / MAC assumes everyone has the same leverage on each other- that they are all as heavily invested in capital.
Where it falls apart is when you get companies that take open models, rent compute and sell tokens at a profit, without heavy investment into research or training. They spend way less, and if they can keep distilling the frontier models, they can produce reasonable products without the massive losses of subscription plans. In your example, DeepSeek et al aren't nearly so vulnerable. There's nothing mutually assured.
It is much more of a classic race to the bottom. Every new frontier model shifts the goal posts a bit, but eventually the house of cards will crumble - or at least, that's what the market seems to be thinking will happen.