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archagon • yesterday at 9:32 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

Great comment.

Also, I could be wrong, but I see two additional problems with the AI business model:

* AI accelerationists believe that generative AI will lead to compounding software complexity that opens paths to incredible economic growth. But there's a good chance it will mostly just expand breadth-wise, i.e. flood the world with mediocre code that follows well-trod paths and ships a lot faster instead of inventing new abstractions or reifying concepts that actually allow for compounding complexity. I don't think consumers want to be flooded with more software. I think they actively don't want this.

* Unless software development is forever "finished" in its current state, or unless actual general intelligence is somehow invented, the training work can never stop. If the money runs out, current models will still be useful for a while, but eventually the industry will lap the training data and model output will degrade.