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klrefg • yesterday at 7:51 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

Government revenue wouldn’t increase by 8x. First increasing oil production in the US over the last 10-20 years required a massive amount of investment. Shale oil is much more expensive to extract so companies simply would have drilled less if they knew they couldn’t profit as much. Developing new wells is only profitable of oil is above $60-70, in Norway it’s up to 40-50% less.

Norway’s reserves are mostly conventional and much cheaper to exploit and develop.

Secondly even if corporations and their share holders get a much bigger share in the US a significant amount of that money ends up in the federal budget anyway.

So idk maybe 2-3x at best? Which of course is still a lot