It's difficult to relitigate this, but I put it to you that Trump #1 lost because COVID happened while he was President, and Biden lost because the post-COVID money fountain transitory inflation was particularly bad right at the end of his presidency, and a significant number of voters simply didn't notice that the Democrat candidate had changed (you can still see this even from punditry!)

Low info voters are very, very bad at dealing with causation. Either for events in the past or events in the future. They tend to follow an algorithm more like "has my life improved recently? Then incumbent, else challenger". Much of the rest is differential turnout. Especially when all the constituencies have been gerrymandered six ways from Sunday.

I guess we'll see in a couple of days. The voter verdict on Trump #2 does not look positive, and this is going to reflect on every candidate with an R by their name.