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paxy • today at 9:37 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

If it makes you feel better all these online calculators are way off because they look at the rise in company value but ignore dilution.

For example if you got a $1M stock grant after Anthropic’s series D round in March 2024, when the company was valued at $18.4B, your stock would be worth “only” 19.5x that today whereas the company has gone up 52x in value. That’s a whopping 63% dilution, because they have raised 4 more rounds since then and all those investors need shares.

The founders themselves have been diluted down to a ~1.4% stake.