> they are still clearly in the lead on coding and will continue to do well until someone definitively passes them.

I think the first implying the second might be a bit of a stretch. At some point, companies are going to start looking at their AI spending and start negotiating deals. OpenAI is right behind them and Anthropic is around 8x more expensive (Sol 6.1 vs Opus 5.5 based on Artificial Intelligence's cost per task; cost per token is a somewhat useless metric when different models use vastly different numbers of tokens for the same thing). Chinese models like Deepseek 4.1 Flash are cheap, can be self-hosted, and while certainly behind Claude Opus 5.5, are still good.

Lots of companies buy "inferior" products like Microsoft Teams. Over the next 5 years, it seems likely that many models will get really good to the point that people often won't be able to tell any difference. Even if something isn't "definitively" better, companies might say "our engineers can't tell the difference and we're cutting our costs by 85%."

It's not absurd to think that a company would use its own harness or an open source harness and/or put a proxy in to route requests variably. For two months, they have engineers using different models unbeknownst to them and they measure things like how often the engineers have to correct or redirect the model. At the end of two months, they might find little difference in performance and switch to a much lower cost model.

It's not like it'd be crazy hard to analyze workers frustration as they did their jobs and figure out if one model was actually better. They could log all the conversations and it's not like AI can't easily determine things like "no, that's completely wrong" as a phrase showing that the agent was really off base.

I think a big part of the next 5-10 years is going to be about cost/efficiency.