> If they can do 25% margins,

This is the assumption we disagree on. They're net negative by an order of magnitude on most of their current customers. I don't see them flipping to break even + 25%.

Further you're assuming they can turn that on today, when they're still very clearly not ready. Every year the timeline gets worse.

Take them to 2% margin with 8 years to go and you're looking at needing 4.5t annual.

This is normally where I'd say "but 2% feels extreme..." and hedge in the middle, but like...the current pricing isn't even close to 25% margin, it's not even close to break even.