The AI Bubble Monitor

> I have a lawyer friend who pays $20 a month for an Anthropic system.

I have a lawyer friend who's seen a dip in clients reaching out. Turns out, they're having Claude draw up contracts.

The article asks the 25 trillion dollar question. ‘What is the near term demand for AI?’ And the answer is nobody knows; especially not these companies. I think the bubble is almost inevitable. Everyone is racing to gain market domination as they see it as winner take all, but it just doesn’t appear to be shaking out that way. There are five very competent US based models alone and then I don’t even know how many open weight models. Unless the industry coalesces around 2-3 models soon I don’t think anyone makes any money on this in the next 10 years+.

”China’s bubble already collapsed, leading to a plunge in its AI-tech index of 40 percent” This was news to me, is there any good coverage on what happened?

the only realistic demand is see is similar to why Azure, digitalocean etc are still breahing. There are incompetent companies that cannot live without certain services, so they'll stay dependent. A lot of companies are doing agentic engineering, and the rat race is even stronger there. You need a product that is better than a vibe-coded app, but you aren't competent enough to get there. These companies are going to die out at some point, and what will be left is the better half.

Even that won't make back the 3 trillion that is needed.

Shameless self-promotion: https://artificialliabilities.com for a nice story-like AI infra overview. Based of FRED, SEC, and other publicly available data.

Given the debt and deficits the government is running I worry they're not going to haveh te financial muscle for a rescue package when this implodes.

Doesn't the title presuppose the outcome?

Some great charts in there that emphasize how absolutely ridiculous SpaceXS(?)ITesla is.

My take on "bubble" activity from HN chatter: https://www.alwaysleaveanote.com/hacker-news/bubble-talk/

AI solves problems that do not exist, it creates problems and then promise to solve them, that's why there's neither a market for them nor any profit.

The AI companies are assuming that there will be demand in the future for their products. That is why they are trying to scale up to meet the demand.

The author, Dean Baker an economist at a non-profit policy group, called the housing bubble. Not wealthy, he sold his condo in 2004 and bought a house in 2009.

Yes the AI bubble is real, but the good things is, it is expaning like an unverse which has enourmous posibilities. I could has said that it will burst soon but after LAYA and JEV, we all are going to witness the lots of changes.

The stages of AI bubble are basically like this:

1. Denial: “No way these companies are worth anything. Zero profits.”

2. Anger: “Idiots! This will end like the 1999 dotcom crash!”

3. Bargaining: “Ok maybe if it goes lower I’ll… I’ll buy!”

4. Depression: “It just keeps going up…”

5. Acceptance: “I missed out, it was so obvious, now I’ll just buy in.”

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