alt Hacker NewsThe world is run by completely average people making series of mundane decisions. There is no super genius who’s job it is to understanding the risk of investing in AI.
It’s just some nameless regular guy crunching some numbers and feeding to another regular guy who interprets the numbers. And so on
But the regular guy working at the place has more information about the place than some random HN commenter.
If it's just regular guys, then it would be arrogant for the HN regular guy to assume they can make better decisions with less information.
In reality it's not regular guys, these companies are very selective and have a very high talent bar compared to the median member of the commentariat. They also hire within domain expertise, whereas most of the commentariat is not of the same domain.
So in addition to an inside information disadvantage, the HN guy is also often at a talent and domain-knowledge disadvantage (as hard as it may be for the ego to accept this). This makes the confident contrarianism even more confusing, not even considering all the times it's been wrong.