alt Hacker Newsincreasingly feeling like the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.
If the gap closes, we do zero austerity, and interest rates are high, I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.
More on-topic (and maybe more positive?), but this model feels a bit more expensive than I would have expected!
Replies
> whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.
Ant/OAI/Google are way ahead when it comes to the smartest, largest-scale and most compute-intensive models. By Jevons' paradox, if you make inference for leaner models cheaper (as the Chinese models do, being broadly comparable to GPT Terra or Claude Sonnet; barely approaching Opus/Sol at their very best) that only increases demand for the complementary service of very smart inference.
i dont see the connection from 2 model providers relative position to the entire economy? especially in the face of dramatic productivity wins.
It's arguable that there is a threshold of quality that matter and US and China are both there already. I guess we'll see. Many of us on here are software engineers and I think we've seen that while Opus 4.7 (I think) was some sort of outlier/miracle, today there are several options to choose from. Depending on the task, the harness, etc Astra/Fable are only better when the work demands their level of capability - which much of software engineering does not.
> the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI...
... What on earth. Please go outside for awhile.
> I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.
The only thing worse for the economy than failure would be success.