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grey-area • today at 7:58 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

Statistics about up and down days or particular periods of the stock market can say whatever you want, because they're so easy to cherry-pick.

A more interesting stat is the current CAPE.

https://www.thetrading.tools/shiller-cape

It is at levels only seen three times in the last century.


Replies

JumpCrisscross • today at 8:18 PM

To be fair, there is no theoretical model for estimating natural CAPE. I’d argue the world of the post 1990s deserves a higher CAPE than the one which preceded it, though we’re trying hard in American to undo that stability.