It keeps dropping. Was 2T, then 1.5T last week, now looking like they might be lucky to get 1T.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Anthropic delays the IPO in hopes this will all magically sort itself out but as every day passes it looks like they should have gone public this summer when things were still on the up.

Realistically the company is worth in the hundreds of billions but if it goes below 1.1T or so existing investors will need to start booking losses and that will trigger a shitstorm of other issues downstream.

This is all becoming a textbook case of folks know these assets aren’t worth what folks want them to be, but they can keep the game going so long as nobody actually marks the asset at its actual realistic valuation.

So that’s the game underway now. How low can they go without blowing up the whole AI ecosystem. If the valuations here drop next the AI bonds and private loans start to fail en-mass and the whole thing that built up this house of cards starts falling apart in reverse. Get ready for a bumpy ride folks.