To me, all signs point to US over investment in hardware capacity to support the "frontier" when in reality the next major breakthroughs are likely radical optimizations that end in increased consumer training and inference efficiency.

I'm not sure how that, combined with open models inching up on frontier intelligence, is compatible with these massive AI IPO valuations?

It seems like closed model AI demand has a lot of contingencies that are ultimately fragile and possibly short sighted.