Interesting overview. And on who will win, on one hand, as you said, Waymo's platform is better, and they just need to continue focusing on developing it cheaper. But on the other hand, Tesla has the volume in that you can already buy a car with FSD (although, we're talking about taxis, not consumer cars, but Tesla has assembly lines ready to produce 100k of taxis). Hmm, hard call...

... just looked it up, Waymo's 6th gen hardware is estimated to cost $20k per vehicle. That's getting down there. And if they ever do even higher volumes, will probably go down further: https://x.com/fchollet/status/2023522267846815874

Looked online, Waymo is really starting to ramp up it's services. They're now in 13 US cities (including Atlanta and Austin): https://support.google.com/waymo/answer/9059119#zippy=

And are planning on increasing the size of their fleet by a factor of 5: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/waymo-...

They will have a huge advantage and seems to me like Waymo is going to win out, but can never tell.