What percent of nvidias success was due to vision, vs luck?

I made a boat load of money off of the Tesla IPO(and then holding for 12 years) but I only invested because I thought they wouldn't be a successful car company but would produce a bunch of patents that would be valuable when licensed to the big auto makers.

Obviously I got that wronged, but my investment still worked out - but I still have friends and family coming to me for investing advice because I made the right move but for the wrong reasons