Even if Anthropic and OpenAI go to zero, the bubble popping still won't hurt many people like it did in other recessions.

Actually there are two different things going on here

1. model layer companies: OpenAI, Anthropic

2. hyperscalers, data centres, hardware layer

When people say the bubble will pop, they usually mean the second one.

> I also think the narrative that these companies are profitable on compute is erroneous.

I don't think you read the Anthropic filing. It is substantially profitable if you exclude the one type of debt which was actually equity. It so happened that Amazon lent some money to Anthropic but it was tied to the valuation of Anthropic, which became a "problem" because Anthropic's valuation grew 10x. You wouldn't call this a loss in any other circumstance.