alt Hacker News> With world fertility rates seemingly all in decline
As much as various folks like to bang on about declining birthrates, the global birthrate is positive (i.e. >2.0 children per woman), and birthrates are only really low in very affluent demographics.
There's nothing particularly sinister going on either - since most children with access to adequate nutrition and healthcare now survive into adulthood, these societies are not losing a ton of population to wars, very little reason for reproducing above replacement rate.
Replies
What is worrisome it's not the instant figures. It's the trend.
The rates are declining everywhere, although still positive.
>As much as various folks like to bang on about declining birthrates, the global birthrate is positive
Sure. Imagine that central Africa (the only place with positive fertility rates) somehow never changes in that regard. What will happen? Will they be able to power the entire world's population replacement, they who made no AIDS medicines of their own. They make no John Deere tractors. No industry at all, really. Will they even be able to feed these people they are creating?
I think once the developed world goes extinct, so too they.
>There's nothing particularly sinister going on either
Functional human extinction in 120 years, absolute human extinction in 350 (or fewer). Technological stagnation (no new advancement) in fewer than 50.
>very little reason for reproducing above replacement rate.
That's not even the argument. The argument is, why isn't everyone terrified that we're well below the replacement rate (where population neither grows nor shrinks), and that we could raise it back up to the replacement rate if we wanted to.
> very little reason for reproducing above replacement rate.
But reproduction is below replacement rate.
Yeah, it is very weird to me too. It's only a problem in a handful of countries that have really, really low birthrates and can't/won't attract immigrants.