watermarking will only work if it's embedded in the model (i.e. frontier/paid offerings). The rate at which open-source/open-weight models are advancing I think watermarks are probably only a temporary solution right? Fragmentation of the models available, or having more models that don't contain watermarks available will probably make this technique useless in the future I would think?
Watermarks have been working reasonably for images even though open models are absolutely competitive with commercial ones, and I guess the reason turned out to be that if someone's going to put in no effort, they're really going to put in no effort.