alt Hacker NewsEmissions budgets are calculated using accounting best practice, which are not designed for full transparency (ref: the creative accounting used to obscure every financial scandal and economic bubble). THIS is the curve that matters:
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
The Iran blip is clearly seen, but it's just that - a blip. Levels continue to steadily rise.
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From 1980 -> 1990 the CO2 mole fraction (ppm) rose 20pts. from ~340 to ~360.
From 2022 -> 2025 the CO2 mole fraction (ppm) rose 10pts. from ~416 to ~426.
It seems we'll have the ppm rise 10pts. in 6 years, which is 40% faster than 40 years ago, which seems like an insane increase to me; almost like things are getting MUCH worse not better.
Levels as in emission levels or total levels? Emission levels may have blipped (and the Iran war is a pretty clear inflection point especially in the developing world) but obviously until we're net negative total levels will not decline because it's cumulative
It will be interesting to see if the security implications of unreliable fossil fuel supply brings forward the date of peak co2 emissions. Adoption of EVs and solar PV is really spiking, particularly in the developing world.
Its also entirely possible things go back to "normal", like happened after the ME oil shocks of the 70s.
The difference between those curves isn't "accounting", it's that the emission rate is essentially[1] the time derivative of the CO2 concentration. They have different shapes because they're different (but related) quantities.
It's entirely consistent with precise and good faith emissions measurements for CO2 to be still increasing.
[1] Modulo the seasonal variation, absorption in the ocean, emission from other sources like permafrost thawing, yada yada.
These two views are not necessarily in conflict: atmospheric CO2 concentration is (vagely/roughly) the integral of emissions. So if emissions are basically flat (-0.4%) you'd still see atmospheric levels rise.