I think the question to me is whether Apple can ship affordable consumer devices with enough memory to run sufficiently useful models sufficiently fast.
Right now 128GB MacBook is the top of the line and you could do Qwen 3.8 Flash or similar.
There is a rumor that the M7 chip can use 1.5TB of memory which would imply Apple is aiming for more memory on devices.[1]
Would that imply the entry-level MacBook will have 128GB and top of the line models could run larger reasoning models? Then the question is price and if any of this will translate to iPhone for on-phone models.
With how expensive memory is, IDK if they can pull this off but I hope they do
[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ap...
Most likely Apple has been spending whatever they can to get in front of the memory market.
Even if it's 2030 - that's a mere 3 years from now - it will take at least that long for the greater economy to figure out how to use LLMs. And probably a memory boom/bust cycle in that time too.
If Apple, in 2030 has a compute product that a worker can BYO(X) to work that has 2TB RAM, with an encrypted personalized context that can float between agents, then they will be in a very interesting place.