> It’s inevitable that some of our interventions are going to fail. (If they don’t, we should either be suspicious of the results, or we should be more ambitious with our programs.) What we really want to know is: when we try to improve the world through some policy or program, how often do we succeed?

Looking at policy-making it seems we routinely mistake having a good reason to want something to happen for having good evidence that our proposed intervention will actually make it happen.

Perhaps the crucial missing ingredient is a requirement that policies contain their own mechanisms for being proved wrong?