alt Hacker News> it looks like the policy caused smokers to switch to cheaper brands
This is documented, but it is not clear how much this is due to packaging vs. Australia having the highest tobacco tax in the world.
> and to smoke more
{{Citation needed}}
This claim is directly contradicted by this Cochrane review. https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD...
"Findings were mixed amongst the four studies assessing consumption, with some studies finding no difference and some studies finding evidence of a decrease."
This also ignores that the intervention was intended to reduce the number of people taking up smoking and to encourage current smokers to quit, which appears to have happened according to that same review.
From the linked abstract (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32958901/):
> In response to the policy, smokers switched from more expensive to cheaper cigarettes and reduced their overall tobacco expenditure and expenditure intensity. However, as smoking became less costly, smokers consumed more cigarettes.
And yes, even if that's true, it's separate from the question of how effective it was as stopping nonsmokers from starting.