I read the whole article, and in the beginning part the only thing I felt the author wanting to change was my own mind. He is drilling in the idea that common sense interventions more often than not do not work. (maybe even almost always don't work).

His proposed change at the end is that we must always guess and check (emphasis on check) for now, and we may eventually get into a "Psychohistory" level of understanding in the future, but we are far from it now.