logoalt Hacker News

edstarch • yesterday at 7:51 PM • 4 replies • view on HN

there is an argument to be made that investors with long investment horizons and predictable flows aka insurance companies and retirement funds are exactly the ones who should be taking risky long term bets instead of looking to next quarter


Replies

hibikir • yesterday at 8:58 PM

Then again, when you look at the performance of your typical pension fund or university endowment, and then see the actual incentives of the people managing the money (as there's ultimately managers there looking for their personal best interests), then you see that said argument one could make is not exactly going to do well empirically.

The main reason we are seeing private equity now being offered in 401ks isn't that it's going to be great returns for your average mostly-self-directed worker, but because those managing private equity believe they will make more money if they managed more capital. There's no guarantee that they are making any choices there that provide good risk-adjusted returns. But the managers sure would be making more on fees.

loeg • yesterday at 8:47 PM

There is, but the presumption in that argument is that those risky bets bring higher returns. If that assumption is invalid, the argument falls apart. (I'm not especially confident myself that private credit can actually bring higher returns over a long time horizon.)

➕ show 1 reply
karmakurtisaani • yesterday at 8:26 PM

Or perhaps not. You don't want to retire at a moment when the retirement fund is down 20% and decides to pay no interest on your savings for the next 10 years. Or not pay you at all.

➕ show 2 replies
watwut • yesterday at 9:16 PM

No, these are who should make conservative slow raise, be sure not to crash bets. Cause when they crash, whole lot of people suffer.

➕ show 1 reply