I think 1. and 2. could both be true at the same time.

1. is claimed to have happened because INVESTORS in AI companies rerated their investment due to a threat of construction restriction 2. is a prediction about the future of how the industry will turn out

Someone who believes (2) is less likely to have been an investor to begin with and therefore didn't participate in the price rerating for (1)

I do agree with your point that a reduction in spending would have a positive outcome overall if we turn out to be in an "arms race" with a lack of ROI.