in terms of progress quantum winter most likely already happened during COVID and there will no longer be any pause in progress.

between 2021-2024 technical progress was not impressive, and companies failed to build what they were trying to at the pace they wanted to. Since the end of 2024 this is no longer the case and progress is constant. To me it seems increasingly likely that by 2030 we'll have fault tolerant compute across multiple modalities including IBM's superconductors.