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zug_zug • today at 9:36 PM • 4 replies • view on HN

Median performance? That's not a correct calculation.

To calculate proper stock returns you need weighted mean. Often in stocks you have a few outliers that give the vast majority of your profit.

I don't know if this is ignorance, but from a methodological standpoint this seems like an attempt to deceive or hide data.


Replies

GrantMoyer • today at 10:27 PM

Plus the S&P 500 is not "the market". It's a subset of the total US market that usually performs pretty close to the total US market, but a few percent difference either direction in performance isn't unusual, especially over less than a year.

And I don't think equal weighted S&P 500 is sufficiently motivated.

seizethecheese • today at 10:28 PM

Even ignoring proper returns, corrupt trades would show up as outliers, so the only thing this analysis shows is that there are a lot of normal looking trades.

somid3 • today at 9:38 PM

True, Im seeing that 10% of the intra day trades were were on companies that changed 5% of value that same day. I uploaded the raw data here if you want to check.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PD84w61HrL1a6lyAMGCO...

ricardobeat • today at 9:43 PM

I was puzzled seeing this, after many many reports of government officials having absurd 100-200% returns in their portfolio.