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Danmctree • 04/03/2025 • 2 replies • view on HN

The numbers appear to be based on the trade deficit alone, not on any differences in import duties etc.

Replies

throwaway2037 • 04/03/2025

That is correct. It was empircally proven here: https://www.ft.com/content/c4f9c7f6-0753-4458-840e-bcde1b74a...

To quote Alex Scaggs of FT:

    Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.
All countries tested against this theory are correct within 1-2 percent.
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matt-p • 04/03/2025

You're right I think it's MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) as a general tariff plus targeted reciprocal (in some cases, not all)