alt Hacker NewsThat's the entire point of it all. I think you are the only person in this thread who gets it. When there isn't a labour force available, you have to increase salaries to get workers. This means other industries and businesses have to increase salaries to keep their workers, giving a domino effect – meaning higher salaries for workers across the board. It might even mean that shit industries can't find any workers and have to close shop. For example the restaurant industry.
This also means higher prices across the board for consumer goods, but the worker still net benefits greatly.
Who does not benefit: The people who do not work. And that's fine. But it's also this class of people who make the entire political and media class, and hacker class apparently, so that's why we have this enormous resistance.
The tariffs aren't set at like 10,000%.
"Domestic production will replace imports" is conditioned on the cost of domestic production being lower than the cost of imports with the tariffs added. "Just spin up new factories with capital investment, raise wages substantially to get people to change careers from service industries, and train all these new people" isn't going to be a cheaper approach to building furniture than continuing to import it from Vietnam with a high tariff.
The effect will be minimal new domestic manufacturing and higher prices for large numbers of goods.