Adoption rate is not derivative of Adoption. Rate of change is. Adoption rate is the percentage of uptake (there, same order with Adoption itself). It being flattening means first derivative is getting close to 0.

While there's an extreme amount of hype around AI, it seems there's an equal amount of demand for signs that it's a bubble or it's slowing down.

You could use that logic to dismiss any analysis of any trajectory ever.

Perfectly excusable post that says absolutely nothing about anything.

> Adoption = number of users

> Adoption rate = first derivative

If you mean with respect to time, wrong. The denonimator in adoption rate that makes it a “rate” is the number of existing businesses, not time. It is adoption scaled to the universe of businesses, not the rate of change of adoption over time.

I don’t understand, how can adoption rate change overnight if its derivative is negative? Trying to draw a parallel to get intuition, if adoption is distance, adoption rate speed, and the derivative of adoption rate is acceleration, then if I was pedal to the floor but then release the pedal and start braking, I’ll not lose the distance gained (adoption) but my acceleration will flatten then get negative and my speed (adoption rate) will ultimately get to 0 right? Seems pretty significant for an industry built on 2030 projections.

Yeah, what a jerk.

Looking at the graphs in the linked article, a more accurate title would probably be "AI adoption has stagnated" - which a lot of people are going to care about.

Corporate AI adoption looks to be hitting a plateau, and adoption in large companies is even shrinking. The only market still showing growth is companies with fewer than 5 employees - and even there it's only linear growth.

Considering our economy is pumping billions into the AI industry, that's pretty bad news. If the industry isn't rapidly growing, why are they building all those data centers? Are they just setting money on fire in a desperate attempt to keep their share price from plummeting?

I think it might be answering long-term questions about direct chat use of AIs. Of course as AI goes through its macroscopic changes the amount it gets used for each person will increase, however some will continue to avoid using AI directly, just like I don't fully use GPS navigation but I benefit from it whether I like it or not when others are transporting me or delivering things to me.

Not really. In this context adoption might be number of users. But adoption rate is a fraction of users that adopted this to all users.