This has been going on for a decade, at the beginning it was projects moving to Gitlab now there's a lot of alternative projects but GitHub is still the only one that counts for discoverability. This is a very small minority of projects that move away from Github and it's way too early to declare GitHub doomed.

Different devs have different preferred ways to work and collaborate. I doubt the FOSS community will converge on a single solution. I think we’re at a point of re-decentralization, where devs will move their projects to the forge that satisfies their personal/group requirements for control, hosting jurisdiction, corporate vs community ownership, workflow, and uptime.

This is due to increasing competition in the source forge space. It’s good that different niches can be served by their preferred choice, even if it will be less convenient for devs who want to contribute a patch on a more obscure platform.

> I speculate that within a few months, the communities will have settled on a single dominant one.

The solutions on the roadmap are not centralized as GitHub. There is a real initiative to promote federation so we would not need to rely on one entity.

The bigger question is whether we want a single dominant replacement, or whether it just means we'll be back in the same place in 5 years.

> Perhaps a well-known company or individual will announce one; it will have good marketing, and dominate.

Hah, exactly what we’re attempting with Tangled! Some big announcements to come fairly soon. We’re positioning ourselves to be the next social collab platform—focused solely on indies & communities.

The settling on a dominant one does not happen - self-hosting becomes more popular.

It looks like all that they’re doing is griping over frontends and interfaces to do all the custodial work other than version control (ie., all baked-in git provisions).

How do you speculate the candidacy for email.

Isn't that pretty much GitLab? But then most people still prefer GitHub anyway.