alt Hacker NewsI'm giving them higher marks than the people who say it won't.
LLMs have seen huge improvements over the last 3 years. Are you going to make the bet that they will continue to make similarly huge improvements, taking them well past human ability, or do you think they'll plateau?
The former is the boring, linear prediction.
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> Are you going to make the bet that they will continue to make similarly huge improvements
Sure yeah why not
> taking them well past human ability,
At what? They're already better than me at reciting historical facts. You'd need some actual prediction here for me to give you "prescience".
> The former is the boring, linear prediction.
Surely you meant the latter? The boring option follows previous experience. No technology has ever not reached a plateau, except for evolution itself I suppose, till we nuke the planet.
LLMs aren't getting better that fast. I think a linear prediction says they'd need quite a while to maybe get "well past human ability", and if you incorporate the increases in training difficulty the timescale stretches wide.
>The former is the boring, linear prediction.
right, because if there is one thing that history shows us again and again is that things that have a period of huge improvements never plateau but instead continue improving to infinity.
Improvement to infinity, that is the sober and wise bet!