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ryuuchinlast Friday at 9:58 PM1 replyview on HN

These are available on Weatherbell[1] (which requires a subscription) now except for the HGEFS ensemble model which I'm guessing will probably be added later. AIGFS is on tropical tidbits which should be free for some stuff[5]. I believe some of the research on this is mentioned in these two[2][3] videos from NOAA weather partners site. They also talk about some of the other advances in weather model research.

One of the big benefits of both the single run (AIGFS) and ensemble (AIGEFS) models is the speed and (less) computation time required. Weather modeling is hard and these models should be used as complementary to deterministic models as they all have their own strengths and weaknesses. They run at the same 0.25 degree resolution as the ECMWF AIFS models which were introduced earlier this year and have been successful[4].

Edit: Spring 2025 forecasting experiment results is available here[6].

[1] https://www.weatherbell.com/

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47HDk2BQMjU

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCQBgU0pPME

[4] https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/aifs-machine-lear...

[5] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[6] https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71354/noaa_713...


Replies

tndlyesterday at 1:30 AM

Really exciting to see NOAA finally make some progress on this front, but the AIGFS suite likely won't outperform ECMWF's AIFS suite any time soon. The underlying architecture between AIFS and GraphCast/AIGFS is pretty similar (both GNNs), so there won't likely be a model-level improvement. And most of ECMWF's edge lies in its superior 4DVar data assimilation process. AIGFS is still being initialized on NOAA's hybrid 4DEnVar assimilation process as far as I understand it, which is still not as good as straight up 4DVar unfortunately.

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