Likely Russia. Their idea is to engage in war under pretense that it's not a war.
What I mean is that they will only understand counter measures that you'd take in a war, like blockade or sink them for instance.
I.e. they are already engaging in the acts of war, so it's late to worry about that, the question is what is anyone doing about it.
Ukraine sinks their fleet in the Black Sea, and they understood it very well - they don't leave their ports.
> What I mean is that they will only understand counter measures that you'd take in a war, like blockade or sink them for instance.
Likely that is what they want. Do you think Russian planners are ignorant, and can't foresee that? This sort of game is long played in international relations.
It's chess: You try to cause your opponent to put themselves in a bad position. Provocations are manipulation - it's obvious what Russia is trying to provoke.