alt Hacker NewsOf the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate.
For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time.
By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo had ~10 thousand miles driven per disengagement, Zoox had ~28 thousand miles driven per disengagement [1]. I would say that this rate of human intervention qualifies as self driving.
[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2025/02/03/2024-disen...
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As somebody who has been reading them since the first year, I think you have it wrong. That self-driving prediction was always about Level 5 autonomy. What's changed between now and then is that we've basically stopped talking about that, instead accepting intervention-as-a-service companies as self driving.
Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard! If someone else wants to try I warmly recommend starting with e.g. the ACX 2026 prediction contest: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/
On the contrary, it’s the companies doing the lawyering. A disengagement is when the vehicle reverts fully back to manual control. Tele-operation does not count as a disengagement, and the frequency of tele-operation intervention is a closely guarded industry secret.