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rich_sasha • yesterday at 5:57 PM • 4 replies • view on HN

US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level.

This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing GDP growth like crazy. Europe is maybe a little stagnant but also not, on the whole, awful.

At the face of it, it's at least a C+ if not better. So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do.

Replies

didibus • yesterday at 6:15 PM

> So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do

Here's the explaining:

  - Unemployment has increased.
  - Long-Term unemployment has increased.
  - Number of gig workers is at an all time high.
  - Layoffs have continued.
  - Personal household dept is at an all time high.
  - Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed.
  - Inflation is not under control.
  - Buy now pay later usage is up as much as consumer spending is.
  - Income and wealth inequality are near records high.
  - GDP and consumer spending were also seen peaking before the last 5 recessions as well...
We're all talking predictions, I don't think either of us should pretend to know the future, but there are counterpoints and so the data does not all look rosy.
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no_wizard • yesterday at 6:15 PM

I'm going to set aside GDP for a moment, which is hardly the full story but instead I want to zoom in on inflation.

The Federal Reserve of St. Louis is using the CPI numbers, as most government agencies do. I would contend those numbers in and of themselves lie. The ALICE index, which is based on more comprehensive data[0][1] and closer to what CPI used to represent before the major adjustments in the 1990s, tells a different story[2]

Inflation against the ALICE index is much higher than the 3% reported in by the Federal Reserve, running at a stark 5.9% YoY change. This honestly lines up much closer to the reality I see in my day to day life than the CPI numbers reported by the Federal Reserve do.

[0]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/methodology

[1]: I recommend downloading the PDF here: https://www.unitedforalice.org/Attachments/Methodology/ALICE...

[1]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index

snowwrestler • today at 3:27 AM

U.S. tariffs created inflationary pressure that has so far been mostly absorbed by producers and retailers, but they can’t do that forever. In fact the Amazon CEO said a week ago that they will have to raise prices this year due to tariffs.

TheOtherHobbes • yesterday at 6:14 PM

It always takes 6 to 12 months for the graphs to match the reality on the ground. Because that's how long it takes most people to run out of money and credit.