Two insider cases we've recently closed

This corporate messaging piece really falls flat.

So they caught $4000 and $200. Sounds very much like sacrificial pieces.

“yes but see they don’t tolerate insider trading!”

That’s it? One from a social media post by the own person who did it, and another in a slim market and had tips come in?

So it basically comes down to:

1. Don brag about doing something, that I’m not quite sure is illegal but supposedly breaks kalshis terms of service (oh no)!

2. Instead of operating in a thin t̶r̶a̶d̶i̶n̶g̶, sorry, prediction market pool, stick with ones that enable more plausible deniability?

If anything there should be more regulation against prediction markets like Kalshi or even elimination.

I thought insiders were an important part of prediction markets? If you want the predictions to be as accurate as possible then you need insider knowledge

"Prediction" markets were supposed to be great because of insiders: they make the probabilities much more accurate and actually useful for forecasting.

But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.

So they caught 2 very small cases and both cases were literally posting publicly about how they were doing a thing against the rules. Seems like they can't actually do anything if the culprits aren't total idiots?

Also what is this 5x payment penalty? What mechanism do they have to enforce this?

Great, Kalshi, now do this one: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/02/kalshi-aliens...

Insider, market manipulation, or…?

I’m personally pretty confused how a private company can effectively fine people?

Reading about these cases immediately makes me wonder how much I could get away with before being caught. I've never gambled on any of the prediction markets, but immediately I see the appeal of the game ("the game" being win the most money without being caught). The fact that I see the fun, really drives home to me how dangerous this can be.

Fascinating first principle to thinking about Kalshi 90% of it is sports betting - I assume a lot of their revenue is gambling law regulatory arbitrage atm

https://closingline.substack.com/p/the-takeaway-kalshi-non-s...

"Kalshi will be donating the fines imposed to a non-profit that provides consumer education on derivatives markets"

sounds like a great cause

Pretty sure insider trading on prediction markets is a feature not a bug. These cases are laughable compared to the true size of insider trading volume on platforms like Kalshi.

It was a Mr. Beast staffer who was insider-trading on the second case. See: https://thehill.com/business/5756511-mrbeast-editor-fined-in...

This is hilariously weak. "over a dozen have become active cases" is so low it made me laugh given how much insider trading happens on these platforms. This post is actually pathetic

Why do we need to allow prediction markets like this at all? It's just gambling dressed up as though it was a stock market. It's just horse racing at a massive scale... except for the hyperstition factor of it actually influencing world events. At least one can pretend, with the regular stock market, that one is investing in the success of a company; though we all know we're a long way from that.

There seems to be no prosocial reason for this whatsoever.

I for one appreciate that these markets are allowed to exist, but I think the contracts themselves need to be less open to manipulation and interpretation. The Zelensky suit, the mention markets (see coinbase CEO: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/01/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstro...), the bets on reality TV shows with tons of insider knowledge, the list goes on and on.

By volume these markets only exist because of sports.

Shouldn't this come with legal consequences for the inside traders?

Having private platforms be judge, jury, and executioner doesn't seem right. Existing regulations ought to cover this no?

They found two cases?

Lol.

4 Stars. Go home and tell your mother you're brilliant.