alt Hacker News"Prediction" markets were supposed to be great because of insiders: they make the probabilities much more accurate and actually useful for forecasting.
But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.
"Prediction" markets were supposed to be great because of insiders: they make the probabilities much more accurate and actually useful for forecasting.
But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.
I regularly check geopolitical markets to see if a breaking news story is substantial or not, and find it useful. It can help distinguish between propaganda and intelligence there.
It does seem like there could be a distinction between markets which require genuinely knowledge and analysis (geopolitics), versus pure gambling (sports, crypto up/down 5 minutes, etc), but I'm not sure who's going to bother making it.