alt Hacker NewsIndex funds give you something like the expected value over a huge class of possible investments.
What you aim for if you want to invest early is rather a probability distribution of
- get rich with a small (but nevertheless realistic) probability p
- get something between little, nothing, and loosing a little bit with probability 1-p
This is a very different offering than the profit probability distribution that index funds give you.
> What you aim for if you want to invest early
Sure. I’m saying someone pursuing that portfolio will probably end up underperforming an index. Most new early-stage VCs do.
> get something between little, nothing, and loosing a little
Broadly speaking, when your investment outcomes don’t differentiate between anything and zero, you’re mostly going to get zero.