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adgjlsfhk1today at 12:49 PM1 replyview on HN

even ignoring distillation, so long as hardware or ml get better over time, training a new model from scratch is cheaper the later you do it


Replies

ef3dfdtoday at 1:19 PM

Yep the poster is assuming efficiencies will not come.

Absolutely they will. And this is a huge problem for OAI - given Google is targeting vertical integration, they will acquire a cost-advantage. As long as the model performance is good enough, they will kick OAI and Anthropic out in the long-run.

The valuations of OAI and Anthropic are nonsense. A true valuation would incorporate failure risk, which is natural for startups/fast growing and money losing firms. Anyone who takes them serious is incredibly delusional.