alt Hacker NewsI agree polymarket is "bad", but it's also highly relevant and should absolutely be included in this web page.
Replies
michaelt • today at 7:19 AM
> it's also highly relevant
Polymarket has $5 million of wagers on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"
The toll Iran charges for safe passage is $2 million per ship, and at current prices such a ship would be carrying about $200 million of oil. Oh, and we live in a world where a single billionaire will happily spend $200 million to influence politics.
The polymarket number merely shows that nobody's paid to make it higher or lower yet.
Why is it highly relevant? It’s a bunch of people betting on the outcome.