logoalt Hacker News

shashtoday at 4:56 AM1 replyview on HN

Is 12 enough of a sample size to make a statistical judgement? What if there were 20 more which didn’t have a loss of life? Is it then 1/30? What if there were 20 more?

The risk factor is calculated _per mission_ from what I understand. You can have three accidents in a row and nothing for decades but the risk itself can still be 1 in 30.


Replies

stetraintoday at 5:01 AM

So the risk factor for Apollo could have actually been 1/1000 but they were just really unlucky?