alt Hacker NewsNot inherent in transformer architecture, we do try to ingrain a sense of uncertainty but it’s difficult not only technically but also philosophically/culturally. How confident do you want the model to be in its answer to “why did Rome fall”?
Lots of tools in our toolbelts to do better uncertainty calibration but it trades off against other capabilities and actually can be rather frustrating to interact with in agentic contexts since it will constantly need input from you or otherwise be indecisive and overly cautious. It’s not technically a limitation of transformer architecture but it is more challenging to deal with than other architectures/statistical paradigms.
Like you can maintain a belief state and generate conditional on this and train to ensure belief state is stable and performant. But evals reward guessing at this point, and it’s very very hard to evaluate the calibration in these open ended contexts. But we’re slowly getting there, just not nearly as fast as other capabilities.
>How confident do you want the model to be in its answer to “why did Rome fall”?
The confidence level can be any, as long as it's reported accurately often enough. "This is my conjecture, but", "I'm not completely sure, but", and "most historians agree that" are all perfectly valid ways to start a sentence, which LLMs never use. They state mathematical truth, general consensus, hotly debated stances, and total fabrication, with the exact same assertiveness.