I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?

You are probably too late for both. But if you buy the AGI line, then yeah, those are the ones to go to.

Im more into buying Shovels. NVIDIA is arguably one of them, and I already have some.

But I recently added POET, CBRS and similar. I think whatever happens, "shovel sellers" will be the main winners in this bubble.

They will exist, but at what valuation? Can NVIDIA really continue to raise?

Prices for both companies are already very forward looking, and assume best case scenario of insane growth for at least a decade while assuming no risk or competition.

But tech is also one of the fields that is more prone to disruption.

Nvidia is consistently one product away from it's competitors to eat highly into their margins.

Google may have a stronger moat. No company in Italy I'm aware of is using anything but copilot or Gemini/notebooklm (talking legal, insurance, etc, not tech) because they are natural extension to the cloud and Microsoft 365 existing plans.

Recency bias seem to push investors to ignore those risks and plenty reason like you: they use recent hindsight to project future growth.

I think that NVIDIA is quite risky. I still don't understand what is their moat. There is nothing in their hardware to make them irreplaceable.

I have a suspicion that when China will roll out their NVIDIA capable chips - and that is a question of when, not if - NVIDIA stock will plummet as it is heavily overvalued atm.