alt Hacker NewsI think it is easy to make some ragebait doomer articles with eye catching headlines. There are a lot of people who are ready to eat up AI catastrophism because something about apocalyptic predictions and catastrophism seems to attract certain kind of doomer-pilled people.
Here are my concrete predictions
1. Token costs will come down and performance will go up
2. Everyone will spend even more on LLMs not less - the article points at small blips but if anyone thinks it will go down from now, you are mistaken
3. AI Companies will be profitable
If anyone wants to counter bet on me, please go ahead.
Replies
> 3. AI Companies will be profitable
but many of the current crop will never return money to investors.
I largely agree with you, but the huge investments currently being made will be very hard to get a return on. Token costs will come down, performance will go up, and you want to be in the business of selling the picks & shovels, not doing the mining.
Which is of course why nvidia, google & TSMC are in pretty good positions, but even their valuations have some bubble in them.
1. Both costs (going down) and performance (going up) likely are, or will shortly, approach asymptotic limits.
2. CFOs are seeing the token spend on the bottom line, and are not happy. CFOs don't care about 'the next big thing', they just count beans, and they are coming up short. CFOs tend to be the grown-ups in the C-suite, they will shut things down if they need to.
3. See 1. and 2.