alt Hacker News> He wrote this in 2024 before reasoning models came out. Remember how ChatGPT was in 2024? Do you think this person is someone who gets predictions right?
Any benchmark on AI shows that it gets better linearly. So his prediction was correct. There is no exponential AI improvement anywhere.
>Any benchmark on AI shows that it gets better linearly. So his prediction was correct. There is no exponential AI improvement anywhere.
?? https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...