alt Hacker NewsIf AI is now ascending an economic learning curve from:
1. Extremely useful (Claude Code & Waymo now)
2. Doing ~everything we do (AGI & Optimus in a few years? 10?)
3. RSI (?)
4. Being smarter than any living person at every intellectual task (?)
5. Being smarter than the best-organized aggregate of all humans (10-100 years?)
...And all of the scientific and resource-allocation institutions that brought us the computer and the second half of the 20th century are now fixated on this learning curve, what universe can we possibly imagine where this is not transformative and powerful?
Honestly the only one I can think of is one in which we kill almost everyone in some other way first, and contrary to what you read in the news, almost everyone dying is not what the trend line has been from existing problems like war, disease, or even climate change.
Also, just to pre-empt a common quibble: when I say "AI" I mean the set of all AI and their combined decision vector, not any one AI, so conflicting interests within the set of AI's will not save anyone any more than the conflicting interests of colonizers saved indigenous Americans.
Replies
> Being smarter than the best-organized aggregate of all humans
Isn't there pretty much a consensus that committees and institutions are not all that smart?
I think you're confusing the categories of "intelligence" and power. Institutions are powerful. The smartest AI is still just a tool without the infrastructure to turn that into real world effects and someone to direct it.
It seems you have faith that this is inevitable and unavoidable. I get it, even rationalists succumb to religious thinking eventually. We're only human after all.
Here is an issue I think about often, but I am not quite sure how to put it into words.
We have many extremely smart people in various fields. Executives, politicians, and society generally ignore them and do whatever they want. I don't believe that lack of access to intelligence is our problem. How is "free" intelligence going to improve this?
I don't just mean climate, but business planning, health, risk assessment, everything.