alt Hacker NewsThe AI Demand Bubble
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This is a bit of a doomer article, but quite honestly, 200 billion dollars a year on a 30 billion dollar a year business that is growing does not really sound as bad as the author makes it out to be, especially when that business consists of growth startups that are currently primarily concerned with completely automating your current revenue stream.
The obvious way to recoup spend is to grow, rugpull by cranking up costs 6x and reducing inference cost by half (highly achievable with improved silicon and technology), then simply fire a large percentage of software engineers. From that perspective the current behavior is a bit wicked but downright logical.
And having two whale customers is not really out of the ordinary for any software company... it's just the scale that is staggering.
The actual risk that the author does not even broach upon for investors... the thing that will actually torpedo this massive investment are the open source open weight chinese models that commoditize the entire endeavor. If you don't have a monopoly, you cannot rugpull and 6x the costs on the consumer.
Ironically, the actual thing that will likely kill OpenAI is ACTUAL OPEN AI.
I'm seeing this guy everywhere. He was on Bloomberg a day ago and then on another channel and now here. I'm curious why there are not more people like him voicing their concerns. Makes you wonder if he is completely wrong.
Has ed zitron ever accounted for the fact that his predictions literally never come true? In most jobs such a poor track record would be disqualifying.
Ironically, AI has been great for Ed Zitron.
> I’d also argue that the vast majority of their capex exists to support these two load-bearing failsons.
Gotcha.
Ed Zitron is like the living human embodiment of the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect, except he only talks about the one topic.
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This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create.
He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab models are spewing tokens or large foreign open weight models are doing it, the token factories will be just fine, and that's really all I care about.
The question to me is why the media favors influencers like this over practitioners.
And it's not like there aren't more balanced takes out there, here's just one...
https://overweightskepticism.substack.com/p/ais-cash-cushion...